Working Papers

Manuela Naldini, Myra Hamilton and Elisabeth Adamson

Abstract: The social investment paradigm has received widespread attention as an approach to ‘prepare’ individuals, families, and societies to respond to new social risks they are likely to encounter throughout the life course, particularly those associated with post-industrialisation and globalisation. Early childhood education and care (ECEC) and policies that support women to participate in employment have been a central focus of the social investment paradigm. But while post-industrialisation and globalisation are closely linked to increases in migration, migrant families are largely absent from social investment policies. From a social investment perspective, access to ECEC and work/care reconciliation policy measures are crucial for migrant children and families. Yet there is a gap in the social investment literature when it comes to access to ECEC and work/care reconciliation policies by migrant families. Against this backdrop, this paper asks: To what extent are migrant families included or excluded from ECEC and work/care reconciliation policies in the two countries? Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of eligibility for and access to ECEC and work/care policies by migrant families in Australia and Italy, this paper critically examines the capacity of the social investment approach to respond to new life course risks associated with migration and mobility. This paper compares social investment policies for migrant families in two countries: Australia and Italy. These two countries have markedly different migration, employment, and care regimes, with both similarities and differences in the organisation of ECEC and policies to promote work/care reconciliation. It draws attention to the way in which the emergence of the social investment paradigm to address ‘new social risks’ does not take account of the importance of migration and mobility in the contemporary life course. Manuela Naldini, Myra Hamilton and Elisabeth Adamson

George Kudrna, Trang Le and John Piggott

Abstract: We document the economic and social circumstances of older people in Indonesia, a low-income country with a population of 273 million, in the context of rapid demographic transition. We find that, in common with a number of other emerging economies in East and South East Asia, most older people in Indonesia are experiencing significant hardship, with nearly half either in poverty or vulnerable to poverty. Economic growth per se does not seem to lead to an improvement in the circumstances of these cohorts. Ongoing societal ageing suggests that this situation will become more critical in the next couple of decades. A major effort in developing effective and sustainable social protection structures to provide support to the future elderly in Indonesia is required. Constructing an informed macro-demographic profile of an emerging economy can be a daunting challenge, but is an essential pre-cursor to evidence based social policy development focused on older cohorts. This paper draws on demographic and household survey data in Indonesia to craft a profile of older cohorts in Indonesia, within a context of changing education and labour force participation. This work has been undertaken to provide context and data for a major research effort around the development of a detailed macroeconomic model to analyse and assess appropriate social protection applications. But it has generated insights into the circumstances of older cohorts, and associated changes through time, which have value in their own right.

We report that:

• Indonesia will undergo pronounced population ageing driven by a reduction in total fertility rate. For example, the aged dependency ratio (65+/15-64) is projected to increase from less than 10% (in 2020) to over 46% in 2100. This is also attributed to an increasing life expectancy, particularly at older ages. For those at age 65, life expectancy is projected to increase by almost 20 years in 2100 (which is almost double the expected lifespan in the middle of the 20th century). Indonesia’s total population has also quadrupled to 273 million (in 2020) since 1950 and is projected to increase to 320 million in 2100. However, the annual population growth rate will become negative, reaching -0.3% in 2100 due to population ageing.
• Importantly, drawing on IFLS household survey data, this demographic transition is occurring in an economy where the large majority of the labour force operates in informal employment, not covered by a formal retirement income policy or, currently, a social pension.
• At older ages, people continue to derive their income mainly from employment, along with private transfers from their adult children and these two income sources will be impacted by fewer adult children (to provide private transfers) and longer lifespans (affecting the labour supply of older people).

Erik Hernaes, Zhiyang Jia, John Piggott and Trond Christian Vigtel

Abstract: Many consider that reducing the eligibility age for pension benefits will discourage labor supply by mature workers. This paper analyzes a recent Norwegian pension reform which effectively lowered the eligibility age of retirement from 67 to 62 for a group of workers. For the individuals we study, the expected present value of benefits was held constant by introducing flexible claiming and actuarially adjusting the periodic pension payment. This neutralized the income effect of decreasing the access age, while the abolition of any earnings test ensured constant present value of the pension, independent of the age when it is claimed. This provides us with a unique opportunity to study the isolated impact of increased flexibility. We employ a particular difference-in-difference approach, which allows us to study the effect on the distribution of labor supply behavior (represented by earnings) instead of just the mean. Older workers are found to stay longer in the labor market but with reduced intensity, implying a higher incidence of gradual exit. On average the reform leads to small and statistically insignificant increases in aggregate earnings over ages 62 to 66. The fiscal effect was negligible, due to actuarial adjustments of pensions and small changes in aggregate earnings. We do however find a reduced inflow to disability, which may add to any positive fiscal effect. Our findings thus suggest that increased pension flexibility could promote gradual exit from the labor market, allowing improved individual choice and positive welfare effects. It could also be an important component of a broader pension reform.

Keywords: Retirement, Pension, Flexibility