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Working Papers

2024Aug

Rudolfs Bems, Luciana Juvenal, Weifeng Larry Liu and Warwick J. McKibbin

Abstract: This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility.

Keywords: Global climate policies; carbon taxes; net-zero emissions; current account balances; international capital flows; dynamic general equilibrium modelling; G-Cubed

 

2024Aug
insurance

Kyu Park and Michael Sherris

Abstract: Private long-term care insurance (LTCI) is not available in many countries, including Australia, with individuals relying on government aged care and their own retirement savings to meet aged care needs. We consider the design of private LTCI products to cover individual out-of-pocket aged care costs, assess their pricing using a recently published model of chronic illness and disability in Australia, evaluate the capital costs for insurers and their implications for pricing, and analyse the demand for the products through utility analysis. We consider individuals in good health as well as those who are disabled or with chronic illness and incorporate estimated trends in mortality and disability. Although we focus on Australia, the results have important implications and insights for other developed countries. We consider several LTCI products, encompassing stand-alone LTCI and a life care annuity (LCA). We incorporate public aged care co-payments, a comfortable consumption level and the aged pension for Australian retirees, as well as solvency capital requirement (SCR) based on the Solvency II into our analysis. We also include a systematic literature review of LTCI pricing approaches that informs our analysis. We show how the SCR is significant for the stand-alone LTCI premiums and reduced for the LCA premiums. Our demand analysis illustrates how LTCI products increase individual utility and welfare in most cases and quantifies how this is impacted by product expense loading, risk aversion, wealth levels, and bequest motives.

2024Aug
Mengyi Xu

Mengyi Xu and Gaoyun Yan

Abstract: The length of stay in permanent residential care is a crucial metric for evaluating the utilization of institutional care and informing sustainable aged care policies. Understanding this metric is especially relevant in Australia, where the decision on how to pay the substantial nursing home accommodation costs must be made shortly after admission and is heavily influenced by the expected duration of stay. We investigate the length of stay in long-term institutional care by analyzing a cohort of older Australians first admitted to permanent residential care in 2008. By employing survival analysis that captures time-varying covariates, we find that, in addition to demographic factors like age and gender, the organization type of nursing homes and their service size significantly influence the length of stay. Failing to account for potential changes due to transfers between nursing homes can lead to a significant underestimation of the impact of organization type and service size.

Keywords: length of stay, nursing homes, AFT model, survival analysis, prospective cohort study

2024Jun
Jennifer Garcia

Jennifer Alonso-García, M. Carmen Boado-Penas, and Julia Eisenberg

Abstract: Pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension schemes are heavily affected by demographic risks. To mitigate the financial burden, mixed pension schemes that combine elements of funding and PAYG have been proposed. In this paper, we introduce a mixed scheme framework designed for a shrinking working-age population given a specific level of pension expenditure. We evaluate its performance using both the one-year ruin probability and the Value at Risk of the accumulated deficits over time. We also examine the implications of guaranteeing a return of zero on the investments within the funding scheme. Furthermore, we explore the creation of a buffer fund that invests part of the capital in the financial markets, thereby alleviating the financial pressures of the PAYG part. Our findings indicate that, although the proposed mixed framework does not hedge against demographic risk, it enhances the financial health of the system, delaying the need for pension reforms as a result.

Keywords: public pensions, demographic risks, investment, sustainability, ruin probability, value-at-risk, investment

 

2024Jun
Peter McDonald

Peter McDonald

Introduction: The sudden rise of net overseas migration in Australia to over half a million in 2022-23 has given rise to a much broader debate on the benefits of immigration and to the likelihood that immigration will be an issue in the next Federal election. It is timely therefore to review how the massive increase in net overseas migration occurred and what is its likely future pathway. Both major political parties and electors consider that net migration should not continue at this very high level and both parties have plans to bring the level down rapidly. This paper aims to provide an understanding of how the rise in net migration occurred and, hence, how net migration can be brought down to an acceptable level most effectively.

The paper provides a discussion of the rationales of the Australian migration program and stresses the importance of drawing a distinction between temporary and permanent migration. This distinction and its implications would be much clearer if the Australian Bureau of Statistics divided the Estimated Resident Population into the permanent population (Australian citizens and permanent residents and New Zealand citizens) and the temporary population.

 

2024Jun
rent

Katja Hanewald and Hazel Bateman

Introduction: In Australia, as in many countries, housing wealth is a key component of retiree household savings. This was underscored by the 2020 Retirement Income Review (Australian Treasury, 2020), which reported that for most households aged 65 and over, the family home is their largest asset. The review found that using superannuation assets more efficiently and accessing equity in the home can significantly boost retirement incomes without the need for additional superannuation contributions. Based on modelling and projections, the review concluded that using relatively small portions of home equity can substantially improve retirement incomes and that releasing home equity can boost retirement incomes with a modest impact on debt.

Australian retirees have several equity release options to access the wealth tied up in their homes without having to sell the property. The government’s Home Equity Access Scheme (formerly Pension Loans Scheme) allows older Australians to supplement retirement income by accessing home equity, with repayment deferred until the home is sold. Similarly, reverse mortgages offered by different providers allow homeowners to borrow against their home equity, with the loan repaid upon selling the property, relocating, or at the borrower’s death. Other options include home reversion schemes, where a portion of the home’s equity is sold for either a lump sum or regular payments, and shared appreciation agreements, which provide payments in exchange for a share in the property’s future sale value. While these options are increasingly recognised for their potential to improve financial flexibility in retirement, their overall uptake remains modest, suggesting a need for greater public awareness and understanding.

This paper aims to provide background information, summarise recent research in this area and identify policy suggestions.

2024Jun

Roshen Fernando

Abstract: Climate change continues to be an existential threat to humanity. With intrinsic linkages to the natural environment, food and energy supply chains are two fundamental channels via which climate risks could spill over into the economy. This paper explores the global economic consequences of the physical climate impacts on agriculture and energy. Firstly, we construct a range of chronic and extreme climate risk indicators. Secondly, we incorporate those climate risk indicators, alongside the historical data on global agriculture and energy, in machine learning algorithms to estimate the historical responsiveness of agriculture and energy to climate risks. Thirdly, we project agriculture and energy production changes under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, the derived shocks are introduced as economic shocks to the G-Cubed model, which is a global multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model. We evaluate the G-Cubed model simulation results for various economic variables, including real GDP, consumption, investment, exports and imports, real interest rates, and sectoral production. We observe substantial losses to all economies and adjustments to consumption and investment under the SSPs. The losses worsen with warming. Developing countries are disproportionately affected. However, we observe the potential for double dividends from transitioning to sustainable livestock production and renewable energy sources, preventing further warming and physical damages, and enhancing the resilience of food and energy supply chains to climate risks.

Keywords: Climate Change, Extreme Events, Physical Climate Risks, Macroeconomics, CGE, DSGE, Machine Learning

2024Jun

Roshen Fernando

Abstract: Climate change poses substantial risks to global socioeconomic stability. The financial sector of the economy could be affected by climate risks both independent of the real sector and due to the linkages with the real sector. Understanding these linkages is crucial not only to prevent the vulnerability of the financial sector to climate risks but also to effectively utilize the financial markets to raise finance for mitigation and adaptation efforts. This paper explores the impacts of physical climate risks on the risk premia of financial assets. We employ a range of climate indicators representative of chronic and extreme climate risks and a mix of panel regressions, machine learning, and local projections to examine the contemporaneous and persistent effects of physical climate risks on financial assets. We also investigate the exposure of different economic subsectors and assets to physical climate risks. We observe that employing a suite of climate indicators enriches the understanding of the impacts of physical climate risks on financial assets. Most of these pathways align with the impacts on the real sector of the economy via sectoral productivity. The physical climate risks could have persistent effects for several years, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Different assets could experience similar effects, although safer assets could reduce the exposure of asset portfolios to climate risks.

Keywords: Climate Change, Financial Markets, Econometrics, Machine Learning, Local Projections

 

2024Jun
Migration

Roshen Fernando and Warwick McKibbin

Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global health threat that led to 1.27 million deaths in 2019. Given the widespread use of antimicrobials in healthcare, agriculture, and industrial applications and a range of factors affecting AMR, including demographic trends and physical climate risks, an economy-wide approach is essential to understand and assess the economic consequences of AMR. We model the global economic impacts of AMR under six alternative scenarios. These scenarios are designed to incorporate assumptions about changes in AMR-related disease incidence, the impact of a central scenario about future demographic change on AMR over time, and explore the sensitivity of assumptions about the effects of AMR on agriculture productivity. We also examine the additional impacts of changing climate risks on the evolution of AMR (focusing on one climate scenario), the consequences of changes in country risk premia due to the differential impacts of the evolution of AMR on countries, and the global economic impacts of changes in government expenditure in response to AMR. Our results find a significant global economic burden of worsening AMR due to demographic change and climate change risks, as well as significant economic benefits of taking action to address AMR. We emphasize that a “one-health” approach to managing AMR will have substantial economic benefits over the coming decades.

Keywords: Antimicrobial Resistance, Antibiotic Resistance, Infectious Diseases, Economic Modelling