Peter McDonald
Introduction: The sudden rise of net overseas migration in Australia to over half a million in 2022-23 has given rise to a much broader debate on the benefits of immigration and to the likelihood that immigration will be an issue in the next Federal election. It is timely therefore to review how the massive increase in net overseas migration occurred and what is its likely future pathway. Both major political parties and electors consider that net migration should not continue at this very high level and both parties have plans to bring the level down rapidly. This paper aims to provide an understanding of how the rise in net migration occurred and, hence, how net migration can be brought down to an acceptable level most effectively.
The paper provides a discussion of the rationales of the Australian migration program and stresses the importance of drawing a distinction between temporary and permanent migration. This distinction and its implications would be much clearer if the Australian Bureau of Statistics divided the Estimated Resident Population into the permanent population (Australian citizens and permanent residents and New Zealand citizens) and the temporary population.
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