CEPAR researchers Associate Professor Jeromey Temple and Dr Tom Wilson, in collaboration with Professors Sandra Eades and Margaret Kelaher at the University of Melbourne and Dr Andrew Taylor at the Charles Darwin University, outline in this paper a new multi-state cohort-component projection model to project the Australian population by Indigenous status over the period 2016 to 2051, and analyse the current and projected levels of numerical and structural ageing; the determinants of ageing; and how ageing and its determinants vary spatially and over time.
This study is the first to provide a detailed analysis of numerical and structural ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population from both a timing and spatial-temporal lens.
The researchers find numerical and structural ageing is projected to increase significantly to mid-century and discuss implications for increased demand for a range of health and care services, with timing of demand peaking earlier in some geographical locations relative to others.
Temple, J.B., Wilson, T., Taylor, A., Kelaher, M. and Eades, S. (2020), Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health. doi:10.1111/1753-6405.13001