Working Papers

Abstract: Labor unions are among the largest institutions in the United States, and their role in regulating employee–employer relations is hard to ignore. Costly efforts to control the spread of COVID-19 (i.e., decreasing economic activity and increasing workplace safety measures), combined with the monopoly and collective voice faces of unions, emphasize the role unions can play in shaping the response of the workforce in coping with COVID-19. We analyze the effect of union size by utilizing state-level data in the United States and by employing a nonlinear probability model and general method of moments estimation. The results suggest new evidence of positive externalities for union employees compared with nonunion employees. We find that a 10% increase in unionization in the United States would lead to around 5% decrease in total cases of COVID-19 100 days after the onset of the virus, controlling for hours of work and differences in union members’ characteristics.

Keywords: COVID-19; labor unions; unionization; work environment

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2020Jun

Taxation and policyholder behavior: the case of guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits

Jennifer Alonso-García, Michael Sherris, Samuel Thirurajah and Jonathan Ziveyi

Abstract: This paper considers variable annuity contracts embedded with guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit (GMAB) riders when policyholder's proceeds are taxed. These contracts promise the return of the premium paid by the policyholder, or a higher stepped up value, at the end of the investment period. A partial differential valuation framework, which exploits the numerical method of lines, is used to determine fair fees that render the policyholder and insurer profits neutral. Two taxation regimes are considered; one where capital gains are allowed to offset losses and a second where gains do not offset losses, reflecting stylized institutional arrangements in Australia and the US respectively. Most insurance providers highlight the tax-deferred feature of a variable annuity. We show that the regime under which the insurance provider is taxed significantly impacts supply and demand prices. If losses are allowed to offset gains then this enhances the market, narrowing the gap between fees, and even producing higher demand than supply fees. On the other hand, when losses are not allowed to offset gains, then the demand-supply gap increases. When charging the demand price, we show that insurance companies would be profitable on average. Low (high) Sharpe ratios are not as profitable as policyholders are more likely to stay long (surrender).

Keywords: taxation; retirement income; policyholder behavior; pricing; method of lines; surrender; variable annuity

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2020Jun

Health Shocks and the Evolution of Earnings over the Life- Cycle

Elena Capatina, Michael Keane and Shiko Maruyama

Abstract: We study the contribution of health shocks to earnings inequality and uncertainty in labor market outcomes. We calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings that incorporates health and health shocks. Our model features endogenous wage formation via human capital accumulation, employer sponsored health insurance, and means- tested social insurance. We find a substantial part of the impact of health shocks on earnings arises via reduced human capital accumulation. Health shocks account for 15% of lifetime earnings inequality for U.S. males, with two-thirds of this due to behavioral responses. In particular, it is optimal for low-skill workers – who often lack employer sponsored insurance – to curtail labor supply to maintain eligibility for means-tested transfers that protect them from high health care costs. This causes low-skill workers to invest less in human capital. Provision of public health insurance can alleviate this problem and enhance labor supply and human capital accumulation.

Keywords: Health, Health Shocks, Human Capital, Income Risk, Precautionary Saving, Earnings Inequality, Health Insurance, Welfare

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2020Jun

Elderly couple researching pension options

Optimal Intergenerational Transfers: Public Education and Pensions

Monisankar Bishnu, Shresth Garg, Tishara Garg and Tridip Ray

Abstract:In presence of imperfections in education loan market, the standard policy response of intervening solely on education front, funded through taxes and transfers, necessarily hurts the initial working population. The literature suggests compensating them via pay-as-you-go pensions as a possible solution. But for various reasons sustainability of PAYG pensions is under serious doubt. We carry out the optimal policy exercise of a utilitarian government in a dynamically ecient economy with pension and education support obeying the Pareto criterion. We find that expansion of one instrument along with the other emerges as the optimal response, however, once the complete market level of education is achieved, the optimal policy suggests phasing pensions out. Eventually, government leads the economy to an equilibrium with zero pension and the Golden Rule level of education. This is achieved by exploiting only market opportunities without relying on other factors including human capital externalities, general equilibrium effects or socio-political factors.

Keywords: Public education; PAYG pension; intergenerational transfers; welfare state

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2020Jun

Time Inconsistency and Endogenous Borrowing Constraints

Joydeep Bhattacharya, Monisankar Bishnu and Min Wang

Abstract: This paper studies the welfare of time-inconsistent, partially sophisticated agents living un- der two different regimes, one with complete, unfettered credit markets (CM) and the other with endogenous borrowing constraints (EBC) where the borrowing limits are set to make agents indifferent between defaulting and paying back their unsecured loans. The CM regime cannot deliver the first best because partially sophisticated agents would undo plans laid out by previous selves and borrow too much. Somewhat counterintuitively, in some cases, the EBC regime may deliver higher welfare than the CM regime. These results speak to the aca- demic debate surrounding the creation and functioning of the CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) in the U.S. and its implementation of the ability-to-repay rule on lenders after the 2007-8 crisis. Such institutions generate commitment publicly and may help time- inconsistent agents economize on the costs of private commitment provision.

Keywords: endogenous borrowing constraints, overborrowing, financial protection

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2020Jun

Building Better Retirement Systems in the Wake of the Global Pandemic

Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract: In the wake of the global pandemic known as COVID-19, retirees, along with those hoping to retire someday, have been shocked into a new awareness of the need for better risk management tools to handle longevity and aging. This paper offers an assessment of the status quo prior to the spread of the coronavirus, evaluates how retirement systems are faring in the wake of the shock. Next we examine insurance and financial market products that may render retirement systems more resilient for the world’s aging population. Finally, potential roles for policymakers are evaluated.

Keywords: COVID-19, retirement, financial market, aging population

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2020May

Consumer Panic in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Michael Keane and Timothy Neal

Abstract: We develop an econometric model of consumer panic (or panic buying) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Google search data on relevant keywords, we construct a daily index of consumer panic for 54 countries from January to late April 2020. We also assemble data on government policy announcements and daily COVID-19 cases for all countries. Our panic index reveals widespread consumer panic in most countries, primarily during March, but with significant variation in the timing and severity of panic between countries. Our model implies that both domestic and world virus transmission contribute significantly to consumer panic. But government policy is also important: Internal movement restrictions - whether announced by domestic or foreign governments - generate substantial short run panic that largely vanishes in a week to ten days. Internal movement early in the pandemic generated more panic than those announced later. In contrast, travel restrictions and stimulus announcements had little impact on consumer panic.

Keywords: Coronavirus, Hoarding, Consumption, Panel Data, Containment Policy

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2020May

Flexible insurance for informal long-term care: An experimental study of demand - Revised

Shang Wu, Hazel Bateman, Ralph Stevens and Susan Thorp

Abstract: We study stated preferences for long-term care insurance that pays income instead of reimbursing formal care costs. Our results show that long-term care income insurance is likely to provide two important benefits to aging societies. First, it can facilitate flexible, informal, long-term care - seniors who plan to rely on family members for extensive care find income insurance particularly attractive. Second, it can enhance risk-pooling - if long-term care income insurance were available, many seniors would release funds set aside to self-insure long-term care risk and purchase additional longevity insurance. Our results rule out adverse selection into the long-term care income insurance product on objective risk factors but show both adverse and advantageous selection effects on private information. We conclude that a flexible insurance product that supports informal care has both demand- and supply-side advantages over typical expense-reimbursement cover.

Keywords: Long-term care insurance; aged care; informal care; retirement incomes; annuity demand, online experiment.

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2020Apr

Intergenerational Inequality and the Intergenerational State

James Mahmud Rice, Jeromey B. Temple and Peter F. McDonald

Abstract: Inequality between generations is a central feature of human societies. Moreover, many institutions have developed within human societies that mould and shape intergenerational inequality, including the state. Nevertheless, intergenerational inequality remains ill-defined as a concept and is rarely directly measured empirically. This paper examines intergenerational inequality – in particular, intergenerational inequality in income. In order to provide greater definition to the concept of intergenerational inequality, the paper introduces a new measure of intergenerational inequality: the IGI index. With this new index added to its methodological toolkit, the paper examines the empirical evidence on intergenerational inequality in income, as well as how the state works to alter intergenerational inequality through the redistributive effect of public transfers. The empirical evidence examined is drawn from the recently developed Australian National Transfer Accounts, which include data on the incomes and public transfers paid and received by different ages and generations in Australia during the 28-year time period between 1981–82 and 2009–10. The analyses presented suggest that there are substantial inequalities in the incomes received by different generations, with earlier generations generally receiving less income in real terms over their lifetimes than later generations. As the state has operated through time – receiving public transfers from some individuals and paying public transfers to others – it has worked to increase intergenerational inequality. This implies that the state has worked to decrease the incomes of earlier generations relative to those of later generations. In this way, the state could be described as exhibiting a bias in favour of later generations.

Keywords: Australia, government, income, inequality, intergenerational transfers, life cycle

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