Aged care residents, residential care developers and government policy-makers need accurate information on likelihood of main events in residential care (i.e. residents’ functional decline and death). Since 20 March 2008 Australian government subsidies for residential care have been based on detailed assessments of individual care needs, and this generated 1.5 million assessment records by 30 June 2015. Four levels are assessed for three types of need - aids to daily living, behavioural needs, and complex health care. Logistic regression models are used to derive mortality and transition probabilities from these data. Backwards derivation was used to estimate mean life expectancies from these models, and microsimulation used to model distributions around means. As there has been continuing drift in assessed care needs, the mortality and transition assumptions estimates are based on the most recent year of experience. A microsimulation model of aged care residents, with all residents at 30 June 2015 as the initial population, has been constructed.
Key Words: ADL, Assistance needs, Life expectancy, Residential care, Australia