Irina Grossman, Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi, Tom Wilson and Jeromey Temple
Abstract
Demographic projections are widely used by policymakers, planners, and researchers. They provide essential information for decision-making across sectors such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure. This study explores the use of demographic projections in Australia, focusing on government practitioners while also including respondents from academia and the private sector. Through a 15-minute online survey of 62 participants, the research identified who used projections, their purposes, and the features users valued most. Key findings highlighted significant differences in needs between government and academic users. Government practitioners prioritised medium-term horizons (10–19 years), national and state-level data, local-level data (e.g., SA2 and LGA), and frequent updates. Similarly, academic users in the small sample reported using national and state-level data but placed less emphasis on small-area projections. There is a strong demand for projections that include uncertainty ranges, yet many users reported limited confidence in interpreting and applying these measures. Additionally, government users emphasised the need for scenario-based projections to account for dynamic factors such as migration policies or economic shifts. Respondents also identified challenges, including insufficient granularity, infrequent updates, and limited transparency around projection assumptions. These findings underscore the importance of aligning research with the needs of government practitioners and fostering collaboration between researchers and policymakers. By addressing these gaps, this work aims to strengthen the usability of demographic projections and encourage future partnerships to enhance evidence-based policy and planning.
Funding: This paper was supported by an ARC Linkage Project (grant number: LP210200733) and the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (grant number: CE1101029). The findings and views reported in this article, however, are those of the authors and should not be attributed to our government partners.
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