George Kudrna and Chung Tran
In this study, we quantify the macroeconomic and welfare effects of alternative fiscal consolidation plans in the context of a small open economy. Using a computable overlapping generations model tailored to the Australian economy, we examine immediate and gradual eliminations of the existing fiscal deficit with (i) temporary income tax hikes, (ii) temporary consumption tax hikes and (iii) temporary transfer payment cuts.
The simulation results indicate that all three examined fiscal measures result in favourable long-run macroeconomic and welfare outcomes, but have adverse consequences in the short run that are particularly severe under the immediate fiscal consolidation plan. Moreover, our results show that cutting transfer payments leads to the worst welfare outcome for all generations currently alive, and especially the poor. Increasing the consumption tax rate results in smaller welfare losses, but compared to raising income taxes, the current poor households pay much larger welfare costs.
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