Roshen Fernando
Abstract: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and climate change are interrelated complex challenges to humanity. We investigate the role of physical climate risks in the resistance growth of seven pathogens against twelve antimicrobials in 30 countries from 2000 to 2020. Our empirical assessment considers both chronic (gradual changes in temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) and extreme climate risks (representing extreme precipitation events, droughts, heatwaves, coldwaves, and storms). We observe heterogeneous responses of different antimicrobial drug-pathogen combinations to physical climate risks. We observe that the physical climate risks could affect resistance growth more than antimicrobial consumption growth in some antimicrobial-drug pathogen combinations. We also illustrate stronger effects of extreme climate risks on resistance growth compared to chronic risks in some antimicrobial-drug pathogen combinations. We emphasize the importance of a broader exploration of factors affecting AMR evolution from a one-health approach and enhanced AMR surveillance, among others, to produce effective policy responses to tame AMR.
Keywords: Antimicrobial resistance, Infectious diseases, Climate Change, Econometrics, Machine Learning
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