Image: UNSW Business School building
Speakers interested in presenting their research on issues associated with pensions, retirement and/or ageing in the 2021 seminar series should contact Inka Eberhardt. Presentations based on complete papers or ‘work-in-progress’ are welcome. We invite participation from academics and research students from UNSW and other universities as well as from researchers in industry and government.
Seminars take place fortnightly on a Monday from 12-1pm (AEDT) and provide an excellent opportunity to network with pensions and superannuation experts from Australia and overseas. CEPAR and the School of Risk & Actuarial Studies at UNSW Sydney have been hosting this multidisciplinary seminar series since 2012 with the aim of encouraging interaction between academic researchers from a broad range of disciplines – including, but not restricted to economics, actuarial studies, finance, psychology, law, accounting, sociology, management, marketing and medicine – as well as from industry and government.
This year the seminars will be run in dual mode to allow for both in-person and online presentations and attendance.*
Please contact Inka Eberhardt if you are interested in presenting, participating or would like to be added to the Pensions, Retirement and Ageing Seminar Series mailing list.
Held fortnightly on Mondays from 12-1pm:
22 February - A review of the proposed Your Future, Your Super performance test - David Bell (The Conexus Institute)
22 March - The Economic Incidence of Superannuation - Robert Breunig (ANU)
12 April - Negotiating flexibility for double care: the experience of migrant old age care workers in China - Bingqin Li (UNSW Sydney)
26 April - Retirement eggs and retirement baskets - Akshay Shanker and Isabella Dobrescu (UNSW Sydney, CEPAR)
10 May - Saman Khalatbari-Soltani (University of Sydney Business School, CEPAR)
24 May - Willingness to take financial risks and insurance holdings: A European survey - Katja Hanewald (UNSW Sydney)
7 June - The impact of mortgage brokers on borrowers' preferences and perceptions - Sol Chung (University of Sydney Business School, CEPAR)
Speaker: David Bell
Affiliation: The Conexus Institute, CEPAR
Abstract: The Government recently announced the Your Future Your Super (YFYS) reforms as part of the 2020 Budget. There is merit in protecting consumers with a performance test. However, it needs to be an effective performance test with limited undesirable outcomes. Unfortunately, our analysis suggests the YFYS performance test does not meet these goals: it will be ineffective at identifying poor performing funds while introducing a range of undesirable outcomes. We are concerned that the detriments of the YFYS performance test may outweigh the benefits. (Material can be found here).
Speaker: Robert Breunig
Affiliation: Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, ANU
Abstract: This paper evaluates the economic incidence of superannuation by comparing workers who receive superannuation at the government guarantee rate to those who receive superannuation above the guarantee rate. We compare wage growth between these two groups during periods when the superannuation guarantee is constant. We also use a difference-in-difference approach to assess whether wage growth changes for workers at the government guarantee rate relative to those who are paid above the guarantee during periods when the guarantee rate is increasing. We use fixed-effects models to control for initial income levels and other individual characteristics. The results suggest that wage growth for workers who receive above the superannuation guarantee rate is consistently lower than wage growth for those who receive the superannuation guarantee. As a result, total compensation across the two groups of workers tends to converge over time suggesting that workers initially bear the majority of the incidence of superannuation and over time they bear the full incidence. Results from the difference-in-difference analysis provide similar results and suggest that between 71% to more than 100% of increases in the superannuation guarantee are offset by lower wage growth; workers bear most of the incidence of increases in the superannuation guarantee.
Speaker: Bingqin Li
Affiliation: UNSW Sydney
Abstract: Internationally, the care labour force is gendered, and care workers are primarily migrant or immigrant women (Pyle, 2006). They play an increasingly important role in meeting the growing demand for social care (Turnpenny and Hussein 2021). However, the problems of high turnover rate and high vacancies remain to be serious (Dromey and Hochlaf 2018).
As the threat of population aging is looming large in China, policymakers' foci are still on the finance of care and providing infrastructures of care. However, as these two aspects are improving overtime, the challenge of the insufficient care labour force become more serious. Apart from the popular suggestions of younger older people to look after the older old people, using robots to replace human labour (Cho, Martin et al. 2015, Pino, Boulay et al. 2015) and attracting more migrant carers from other countries as has done by other East Asian countries, it is also important to analysis how to retain the limited labour force who are already in the sector.
In this research, we try to understand how employees and employers negotiate flexible work arrangement so that the employees can achieve a higher level of flexibility in the institutionalised care sector in China. The paper is based on participatory field research and in depth interviews in old age care homes in Beijing and Shanghai in 2016-2019. The authors develop a three level time management framework to analyse how care workers have acquired some level of flexibility. The last section summarizes the research findings and highlights the emerging adaptive labour relationship in China’s social care sector. Policy suggestions are made to better support care workers and reduce the turnover rate in nursing homes. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on the need to adopt new work arrangement in the elder care sector.
Speakers: Akshay Shanker and Isabella Dobrescu
Affiliation: UNSW Sydney, CEPAR
Abstract (please don’t cite without authors’ permission): How do people with different demographics, earning abilities and preferences save across asset classes such as housing, financial and pension wealth during their life? Are these different asset classes serving different saving motives, such as self-insuring against idiosyncratic earnings shocks, building retirement savings or gaining market returns? And how does a government policy imposing considerable pension savings affect these decisions? We address these questions in a dynamic life-cycle model and examine the saving behaviour of members of an industry-wide pension fund to assess the impact of age, gender, earnings dynamics, pension plan defaults, preference heterogeneity and credit constraints on wealth accumulation.
We estimate the model using the simulated method of moments on matched national survey and administrative data from a large Australian pension fund. Our preliminary results show considerable differences in what drives saving in each asset class across gender and age. Interestingly, men use financial wealth primarily as a means to self-insure against labor income shocks, while women also use it to save for retirement. Second, women appear to rely on housing wealth to a far lesser extent than men for the purpose of self-insurance. Third, more flexible pension choices would considerably tilt women's choices towards higher retirement savings via their pension plan but also in illiquid wealth. Finally, men use both financial and housing assets to manage preference shocks, while their role is limited for women.
The seminar will also discuss a new solution method, which utilises sufficiency of a sub-derivative generalisation of the Euler equation, to efficiently solve and estimate high dimensional dynamic models with non-convexities on compute clusters.
Speaker: Katja Hanewald
Affiliation: UNSW Sydney, CEPAR
Research by Martin Eling, Omid Ghavibazoo, and Katja Hanewald
Abstract: We investigate the relationship between self-reported willingness to take financial risks and ownership of life insurance and long-term care insurance. For a representative sample of individuals aged 50+ from 14 countries and controlling for demographic and socioeconomic determinants of insurance demand, we find a positive link between willingness to take financial risks and ownership of both long-term care insurance and life insurance. The link is stronger for whole life insurance compared to term life insurance and long-term care insurance. Two robustness tests that (i) use risky asset ownership instead of willingness to take financial risks and (ii) focus on specific demographic and socioeconomic groups confirm the results for life insurance, while the results for long-term care insurance are less clear. Our empirical results cannot be explained by the classical expected utility framework and thus support recent research indicating that alternative models (e.g., prospect theory) are needed to explain insurance demand.
Direct enquiries to: Inka Eberhardt
* Note: The safety and wellbeing of participants is paramount to CEPAR. CEPAR acknowledges the ever-changing COVID-19 situation has created uncertainty, also in terms of future travel, both interstate and overseas. At this stage the seminars will take place with a mix of in-person and online participation in a COVIDsafe environment and subject to the COVID-19 caveat with regard to government and university restrictions in place at the time, however, if circumstances restrict this CEPAR will convert to an online event entirely.