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Optimal Surrender of Guaranteed Minimum Maturity Benefits under Stochastic Volatility and Interest Rates

Data analysis

Boda Kang and Jonathan Ziveyi

In this paper we analyse how the policyholder surrender behaviour is influenced by changes in various sources of risk impacting a variable annuity (VA) contract embedded with a guaranteed minimum maturity benefit rider that can be surrendered anytime prior to maturity. We model the underlying mutual fund dynamics by combining a Heston (1993) stochastic volatility model together with a Hull and White (1990) stochastic interest rate process.

The model is able to capture the smile/skew often observed on equity option markets (Grzelak and Oosterlee, 2011) as well as the influence of the interest rates on the early surrender decisions as noted from our analysis.

 

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