The number of older persons (defined as those aged 60 years and over) in sub-Saharan Africa will increase 4-fold between 2010 and 2050, from 40 to 160 million. Increasing age is the strongest risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis and dementia. Health systems that are currently focused on treatment of communicable diseases in young people will need to change significantly to cope with a new spectrum of health problems.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) describes six health system building blocks: service delivery, health workforce, information, medical products and technologies, financing and leadership/governance. All these building blocks will need attention as the number of older persons in sub-Saharan Africa increases. Health services need to be accessible to older persons; health workers must be trained in management of NCDs and in geriatric medicine; health information systems need re-design to capture the changing patterns of disease; medications to treat NCDs must be made available; financing arrangements are needed that make health care affordable for older people; and local and national leadership is required to drive all these changes.

Participants in this symposium will present papers on the reorientation of health care for older people in Africa. Several of the WHO health system building blocks will be considered, including service delivery in South Africa and financing health care for older people in Senegal. The symposium will also include case studies of the need for mental health services for older people in Botswana and integration of care of older people into primary health care in Uganda.    

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Equity release products are sorely needed in an ageing population with high levels of home ownership. There has been a growing literature analyzing risk components and capital adequacy of reverse mortgage in recent years. However, little research has been done on the risk analysis of other equity release products, such as home reversion contracts. This is partly due to the dominance of reverse mortgage products in equity release markets, particularly in the United States. In this paper, we compare the cash flows and risk profile from the provider's perspective between reverse mortgage and home reversion contracts. We employ a Markov multi-state model to calculate termination rates, and a vector autoregression model (VAR) to model the joint dynamics of other economic variables, including mortgage rates, interest rates, rental yield rates, housing price index. We derive stochastic discount factors based on an affine term structure model to price the no negative equity guarantee in the reverse mortgage and the lease for life agreement in home reversion. We then calculate the minimal capital requirement for equity product suppliers based on the value at risk (VaR) approach.

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CEPAR Director John Piggott presented at the Australia Japan Joint Business Conference discussing the challenges posed by the ageing population in Asia and the opportunities emerging as a result. The sheer expected numbers of the Asian aged popualtion are staggering and Japan is at the forefront with more than 70% of their population expected to be aged over 65 by 2050. 

You can read John's presentation here.

For more information on the AJJBC visit their website.

Keynote Address by Professor Hal Kendig for the SSTI ElderCare Seminar

Concorde Hotel, Singapore

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In a briefing to Senators and Members at Parliament House on 22 August, CEPAR Professor Hal Kendig, told them of the need to move away from centralised programs and towards regional management of consumer directed care. He told MPs that aged care reform requires a whole of government approach.

Professor Kendig addressed parliamentarians at the invitation of the Parliamentary Library as part of its Vital Issues Program. The seminar program aims to give Senators, Members and their staff the opportunity to hear from experts on current issues.

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In a recent national policy forum hosted by COTA, CEPAR Professor Kaarin Anstey, said government policy on dementia should focus on risk factors. Professor Anstey told the forum that dementia research shows focusing on particular lifestyle factors could reduce the incidence of the disease.

COTA is a peak national body representing older Australians and focuses on policy issues from the perspective of older people.  COTA has called for a National Older Persons Preventive Health Strategy and held a national policy forum in Canberra on 15 May, bringing together academic researchers, practitioners and consumers to identify the key components of such a strategy.

Based on the available evidence and what is currently possible, Professor Anstey outlined a range of policy approaches governments could take to help prevent the onset of dementia. She says policy measures should focus on controlling factors that increase the risk of the disease.

"Based on statistical modelling and evidence from diabetes, it is highly probable that lifestyle interventions will prevent incident dementia cases," Professor Anstey said.

Policy should promote physical activity, not smoking, eating fish, maintaining healthy weight, and preventing diabetes.

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The Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne will be hosting a one-day workshop at the Shine Dome in Canberra on Friday 11 May 2012 to coincide with the 10th anniversary of the Treasury's first Intergenerational Report.

Presenters Include:

Professor John Piggott, Australian Professorial Fellow and UNSW Scientia Professor; Director  ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), The University of New South Wales

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Professor Peter McDonald, Director, Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, The Australian National University and Deputy Director of CEPAR

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Dr David Gruen, Executive Director, Macroeconomic Group, Department of the Treasury

Dr Ralph Lattimore, Assistant Commissioner, Productivity Commission

Professor Adrian Pagan, Professor of Economics, School of Economics, The University of Sydney

Professor Phillip Clarke, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney

Mr Mark Cully, Chief Economist, Department of Immigration and Citizenship

Mr Henry Ergas, Senior Economic Adviser, Deloitte Economics and Professor of Infrastructure Economics, SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong

Professor Beth Webster, Professorial Research Fellow and Director, Intellectual Property Research Institute of Australia, Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne

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CEPAR Presentations

8f A Comparison and Economic Analysis of International Solvency Regimes for Annuity Markets - Maathumai Nirmalendran, Michael Sherris, Katja Hanewald.

2e House Price Risk Models for Banking and Insurance Applications - Katja Hanewald and Michael Sherris.

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CEPAR Chief Investigator, Professor Michael Sherris, is an invited keynote speaker at the Singapore Actuarial Society - Life Insurance Association retirement conference 2012, Improving Retirement Security in Singapore.

Keynote address:  Global retirement developments and lessons for Singapore

The presentation will overview the structure of a number of global retirement systems and discuss global developments in retirement systems, including the role of government and private markets. Issues of adequacy, security and efficiency are considered along with product needs for retirement income, health, and long-term care. Approaches to financing an ageing population through a partnership of government-mandated schemes, private insurance markets and private savings including housing are reviewed. The importance of systematic longevity risk, mutual risk sharing, and a portfolio approach to retirement income are considered. Finally, implications for the Singapore retirement income system are reviewed.

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CEPAR Director, Professor John Piggott is an invited guest at an international pensions conference hosted by the Employees Provident Fund. The conference, Dynamic Evolution of the Pensions World, is being held in Kuala Lumpur.

Local and international pensions and labour market experts, fund managers and public policy makers will attend the  two-day seminar which aims to address the latest developments and challenges arising in retirement income provisions as a result of changes in the global economic, demographic, political and social landscapes in recent years. 

Professor Piggott's presentation will focus on the opportunities and challenges of employing older workers.

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